According to the latest survey by TrendForce, TV brand operators may indirectly pass on rising costs to retail prices in the second half of 2025 due to the impact of US equivalent tariff policies, thereby suppressing consumer momentum. In addition, the trade in policy in the Chinese market in the second half of 2024 will release some demand in advance, and it is estimated that global TV shipments will decrease by 0.7% annually by 2025, leaving only 1964.4 million units.
Brand pre stocking, 1Q25 TV shipments increase by 6.1% annually
Observe Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics TCL、 The shipment dynamics of the four major TV brands, including Hisense, were affected by the US plan to increase import tariffs on goods, and initially planned to raise them to 25% for Mexico. Brand operators began to increase their shipments in North America by the end of 2024, and their strength remained strong in the first quarter of 2025, with shipments reaching 45.59 million units, an annual increase of 6.1%. The inventory levels of the four major brands in US channel partners also increased by three to four weeks compared to the average.
Tariffs drive 1H25 shipments, facing uncertainty during peak season in the second half of the year
In early April 2025, the United States announced equivalent tariffs, but goods produced in Mexico that comply with the USMCA agreement will continue to enjoy relevant tax exemptions, which has relieved television manufacturers with factories in Mexico. On April 9th, the United States announced a 90 day suspension of equivalent tariffs, reducing the tax rate faced by Vietnam, the world's second-largest television producer, from 46% to 10%.
TrendForce Consulting stated that due to the uncertainty of tariffs and brand manufacturers rushing to import products to the United States during the grace period, TV shipments in the first half of this year will reach 94.18 million units, an annual increase of 3.8%. Among them, TCL and Hisense's shipments are expected to increase by 15% and 7% annually, respectively. VIZIO, whose main sales market is the United States, is estimated to have an annual shipment growth rate of up to 20%.
For manufacturers who do not have sufficient production capacity in Mexico, if they cannot transfer their production and supply chain to the local area before the end of the second quarter, they will inevitably face challenges such as cost transfer, limited promotion scale in the second half of the year, and market share loss. TrendForce predicts that there may be another "peak season not prosperous" situation in the second half of this year, and the shipment volume will be reduced to 122.7 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%.
Chinese brands focus on Mini LED TVs, expected to reach new highs in shipments by 2025
Observing the Chinese television market this year, against the backdrop of the continuation of the trade in policy, TCL、 The three major brands, Hisense and Xiaomi, still focus on promoting Mini LED TV products. Mini LED TVs that meet energy-saving standards can receive subsidies. In addition, TCL and Hisense have superior backlight design capabilities and supply chain cost advantages, with fast product innovation speed and competitive prices. It is expected to drive a 50% increase in Mini LED TV shipments this year, reaching 11.56 million units, and the total market share of the three major brands will also grow to 64%.
Looking at the performance of OLED TV shipments, Samsung Electronics strategically increased its shipment target to 2.5 million units this year, which is expected to drive an overall annual increase of 7.1% in shipments, reaching 6.79 million units. However, in the medium to long term, OLED TVs still have a price difference of three to four times compared to LCD TVs equipped with Mini LED backlighting in terms of panel and overall retail prices, and there is also a lack of response from Chinese TV brands. With limited production capacity of OLED TV panels, it is expected that the future shipment volume of OLED TVs will remain between 6.5 million and 7 million units.
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